Kentucky Derby Odds & Favorites 2025: Who’s Favored to Win at Churchill Downs?
The 2025 Kentucky Derby ushers in the Triple Crown season, this Saturday, May 3 from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. More than 150,000 spectators are expected to turn the famed track into a racing, wagering, and partying bacchanalia - many, if not most, casting eyes on the current 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Those morning line Kentucky Derby odds were unveiled Saturday at FanDuel Racing, with Journalism opening as the 3-1 favorite. It bears noting that no favorite has prevailed for wagering purposes since Justify in 2018. Maximum Security crossed the finish line first in the following year’s Run for the Roses, but was disqualified for interference.
If you can’t make it to Louisville on the first Saturday in May, NBC will bring you everything from handicapping to hats. The post time is approximately 6:57 p.m. ET, so study up on the Kentucky Derby horses while you can.
🐎 Updated Kentucky Derby odds 2025
Here are the latest Kentucky Derby odds and Kentucky Derby post position for the 2025 Run for the Roses, with odds via FanDuel Racing as of Tuesday.
| 🐎 Horse | 🔢 Odds | 🚩 Post position | 🧍 Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | 8 | Michael McCarthy |
| Sovereignty | 5-1 | 18 | Bill Mott |
| Sandman | 6-1 | 17 | Mark Casse |
| Rodriguez | 12-1 | 4 | Bob Baffert |
| Burnham Square | 12-1 | 9 | Ian Wilkes |
| Luxor Café | 15-1 | 7 | Noriyuki Hori |
| Citizen Bull | 20-1 | 1 | Bob Baffert |
| Grande | 20-1 | 10 | Todd Pletcher |
| East Avenue | 20-1 | 12 | Brendan Walsh |
| Publisher | 20-1 | 13 | Steve Asmussen |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 | 14 | Steve Asmussen |
| Neoequos | 30-1 | 2 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Final Gambit | 30-1 | 3 | Brad Cox |
| American Promise | 30-1 | 5 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Admire Daytona | 30-1 | 6 | Yukihiro Kato |
| Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | 11 | Whit Beckman |
| Render Judgment | 30-1 | 15 | Kenny McPeek |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 | 16 | Lonnie Briley |
| Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | 19 | Ethan Weste |
| Owen Almighty | 30-1 | 20 | Brian Lynch |
💰 Who's favored to win the Kentucky Derby?
🥇 Journalism (3-1)
This stalking progeny of standout sire Curlin is a no-brainer favorite, and it doesn’t require a lot of parsing or deep thinking to understand why. All you have to do is watch his solid, rally-from-adversity victory in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, where he came from last at the half-mile post, overcame bumping and blocking, and rallied to win in the final sixteenth. Then, as if to send a message to his rivals, Journalism galloped out strongly, showing he has more in the tank.
That was Journalism’s third consecutive stakes victory and it came not only on a slow track, but came with the second-fastest final-furlong time (12.3 seconds) in the Derby field, trailing only Final Gambit’s 11.9-second clocking that came on synthetic. He owns the two fastest Beyer Speed Figures (a 108 in the San Felipe Stakes and a 102 in the Santa Anita Derby).
Finally, Journalism’s stalking style and tactical speed should keep him close enough to the speed horses and keep him ahead of the closers and deep closers. He is simply the most complete horse in the field. It's why we also expect Journalism to top the Triple Crown odds.
🎯 Kentucky Derby long shot to watch
Rodriguez (12-1)
If a speed horse wins Derby 151, you’re looking at the likely candidate in the Baffert horse we do like here. Yes, he finished 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes in March. Yes, he finished nearly four lengths behind Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis a month earlier.
But few colts in the Derby field have shown the improvement of this progeny of 2000 Derby winner and Horse of the Year Authentic. After holding his own against some of the best 3-year-olds in the country, Rodriguez went to New York and wired the field in the Wood Memorial. Yes, the Wood hasn’t exactly been a Derby winning incubator; it hasn’t sent a horse to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle since Funny Cide won the 2003 Derby.
However, if that streak ends this year, Rodriguez is the likely reason. His 101 Beyer Speed Figure from that race is one of only three triple-digit Beyers in the field, and his 36.9-second final three furlongs in that race is the fastest on dirt of any Derby horse.
Jockey Mike Smith, a two-time Derby winner, is one of the savviest at using a horse’s tactical speed, and he’ll be tasked with knowing how far to push Rodriguez against the other speed horses.
Get more info on the 2025 Kentucky Derby long shots here.
❌ Kentucky Derby pick to avoid
Citizen Bull (20-1)
We’ll put aside the no-hopers, such as Owen Almighty, Neoequos and East Avenue and concentrate on the other Baffert horse in the field: one who boasts a CV that - combined with his lofty odds and Hall of Fame trainer - may tempt you to go all-in.
Don’t.
While it’s tempting to bet any Baffert horse in a Derby - especially when he’s the reigning Champion 2-year-old - we’re bearish on Citizen Bull. First, he’s likely a need-the-lead horse who has shown that his best races come when he gets the lead and can set a comfortable pace. With other speed horses (Rodriguez, American Promise, the aforementioned trio), that isn’t happening here.
Second, Citizen Bull showed a dramatic lack of stamina in his last prep: the Santa Anita Derby, when he faded badly and finished a distant fourth - nearly 10 lengths behind winner Journalism. His final furlong time (14.2 seconds) isn’t competitive in a Derby field.
As you ask yourself why a Baffert horse is 20-1, we’ll close with this. Citizen Bull is starting from the rail, a position that hasn’t sent a colt to the winner’s circle since Ferdinand in 1986.
📺 Kentucky Derby info & how to watch
- When: Saturday, May 3
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
- How to watch: NBC Sports
📰 Kentucky Derby betting news
- FanDuel adds new promos for 2025 Kentucky Derby
- FanDuel TV to broadcast all Kentucky Derby preparation races
- FanDuel announce Shaboozey as headline act at Kentucky Derby party
- Kentucky sportsbook wagers down month-over-month in February
- Kentucky pari-mutuel betting handle drops in December
What to know for betting the Kentucky Derby
One thing to understand when constructing your tickets is understanding the endless list of variables to contemplate in a 20-horse Derby field. The countless scenarios that could transpire in a 10-furlong free-for-all means the only guarantees usually center around who can’t win - rather than who can.
Scratching off horses like Coal Battle, Owen Almighty, Chunk of Gold, Neoequos, Render Judgment, and Admire Daytona because they don’t hit the threshold of a 95 Beyer Speed Figure is always a good starting point. When Mystik Dan won last year at 18-1, he became the 28th cashable Derby winner in the last 33 years to bring in at least a 95 Beyer to the Churchill Downs starting gate.
From there, find long shots and value horses (like Rodriguez, Grande, and Baeza, if he gets in the field) who may not win, but have the potential to find the board and boost your exotic bets. Building a winning exacta (picking the top two horses), trifecta (top three finishers) or superfecta (top four) ticket means finding value down the toteboard.
Why is it important to find those down-ticket nuggets? Because there’s gold in those nuggets. Aside from the fact a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018, with Authentic in the pandemic Derby of 2020 being the only single-digit odds winner at 9-1 in that time, finding those double-digit sleepers is the best way to wake up your tickets. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid a healthy $1,113.84. The $1 superfecta brought you $8,254.
While strong, those aren’t life-changing numbers. For that, go to 2022, when 80-1 Rich Strike pulled off his half-mile slalom for the ages, stealing the Derby in the final 50 yards and bringing home mind-bending payouts. A $2 exacta with second-place finisher Epicenter paid $4,101.20. A $1 trifecta paid $14,870.70, and the $1 superfecta paid a cool $321,500.10.
Even having a favorite come home can produce eye-watering tickets if you have the right horses underneath in an exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. In 2018, Justify’s victory headlined a $142 trifecta. But when 90/1 Instilled Regard sneaked into fourth, superfecta bettors cashed tickets for $19,619.
The year before, 9-2 Always Dreaming won Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher his second Derby. But savvy ticket holders putting 33-1 Looking at Lee and 40-1 Battle of Midway underneath cashed at $16,594.40 payday on their $2 trifecta. Classic Empire, the third-favorite at 6-1, brought home a $75,974.50 windfall on a $1 superfecta.
You get the picture. Now, how do you build those tickets?
First, once you’ve winnowed the field, find your key horses and put them across your tickets. Then, start looking at closers, and not just because this year’s pace could set up for one.
According to handicapper Mike Shutty, a closer with odds of 10-1 or higher has found the superfecta 11 consecutive years. And in 10 of 11 years, closers made up two of the four superfecta spots. Finally, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012.
Kentucky Derby trends and stats
Why do we put so much emphasis on speed, both tactical and practical? Because the numbers show that closing speed is a predictor of Derby success. Track publicist and former turf writer Jenny Rees came up with the Final Fractions Theory, which theorizes that horses who run the last eighth of a mile of their last prep race under 13 seconds and/or the last three-eights in under 38 seconds have the speed necessary to win a modern Derby.
The numbers back that up, with 18 of 24 Derby winners since 2000 running a sub-13-second final furlong and 31 of the last 38 - including Mystik Dan last year - cracking 38 seconds for three furlongs in their final prep. That figure includes 16 of 24 this century.
This year, eight horses check the sub-13-second box and seven the sub-38-second box. The seven who check both boxes: Final Gambit, Journalism, Sovereignty, Grande, Rodriguez, Flying Mohawk and Luxor Café.
Let’s cull the herd further by looking at another speed barometer: Beyer Speed Figures. They’re not always the final arbiter for any race, much less a 20-horse Derby. But they do provide a reliable guide to winnow the field, since horses with a sub-90 Beyer as their top figure are easy eliminations. They lack the speed necessary to win a Derby. Conversely, 11 of the last 14 Derby champions had a Beyer of 100 or greater on their CV coming into the Derby.
That doesn’t take much parsing here. The only two horses with triple-digit Beyers are Journalism (who has two: a 108 and a 102) and Rodriguez (101).
Since the point system was instituted in 2013, Derbies have followed two different pace scenarios. After closer Orb won the 2013 Derby, horses with front-end speed or stalkers captured the next eight. That included eventually disqualified winners Maximum Security (2019) and Medina Spirit (2021). In fact, 11 of the last 15 winners were running in the front half of the field at the half-mile mark.
But in the last three Derbies, it’s been the Revenge of the Closer, with Rich Strike (2022), Mage (2023) and Mystik Dan (last year) all seizing on an early incendiary pace to close in the final sixteenth. All three weren’t close to the lead at the half-mile mark, yet all three capitalized on fast opening fractions to pass tired opponents.
If you think that’s in the forecast this year, your go-tos are Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Sandman. If you think front-end speed will prevail, look at Rodriguez. We’ve always been partial to stalkers, horses that stalk the pace, then turn it on in the final quarter to three-eighths. That includes favorite Journalism, Grande, and - if he gets in the field - Baeza.
🔢 How to read horse racing odds
Horse racing odds are usually shown in fractional form (like 5-1, pronounced "five to one"). They illustrate:
- How much you can win compared to your bet
- The horse’s implied chance of winning
How to understand them:
- 5-1 odds mean you win $5 for every $1 bet, plus you get your $1 back
- Example: Bet $10 at 5-1. If the horse wins, you profit $50 and get your $10 bet returned — totaling $60
- Even money is listed as 1-1 or sometimes just "even," meaning you win the same amount you bet
- Lower odds (like 2-1 or 3-2) mean the horse is more favored — and pays less because it’s seen as more likely to win
- Higher odds (like 20-1) mean a long shot — you win more if the horse wins, but it's less likely
Example:
| Odds | Profit ($10 bet) | Total payout | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | $20 | $30 | 33.33% |
| 5-1 | $50 | $60 | 16.67% |
| 10-1 | $100 | $110 | 9.09% |
| 20-1 | $200 | $210 | 4.76% |
❓ Kentucky Derby FAQs
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025?
Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states:
Kentucky sports betting is up and running, so Kentucky horse racing fans should be able to bet from anywhere in the state for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. You can also check out our list of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites here!
Canadians can bet on the Kentucky Derby at bet365.
Who is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite?
Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) are the betting favorites to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
How long is the Kentucky Derby track?
The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.
When is the 2025 Kentucky Derby this year?
The 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 3.
Where is the 2025 Kentucky Derby held?
The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Here are our best Kentucky Derby betting sites:
Looking to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the top-rated Kentucky Derby betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos ahead of the 2025 Run for the Roses:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
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