Kentucky Derby Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Horses to Back at Churchill Downs

While Journalism is the 3-1 morning line favorite by the latest Kentucky Derby odds to win Saturday’s 151st Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., know there is always plenty of interest in who are the reliable Kentucky Derby long shots. 

That’s because those long shots provide a shortcut to eye-popping payouts on the perfectly constructed Kentucky Derby bet ticket. Eleven horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid $1,113.84. Had you picked the top four horses, a superfecta, you walked away with $8,254.

So what do you look for in a good Derby long shot? We pick three here who belong on your tickets ahead of Saturday's race at 6:57 p.m. ET.

🐎 Kentucky Derby sleeper picks

Here are my favorite Kentucky Derby long-shot picks for the 2025 Run for the Roses and their Kentucky Derby odds from FanDuel Racing as of Tuesday.

💰Luxor Cafe (15-1)
💰Grande (20-1)
💰Rodriguez (12-1)

🚨 My 3 best Kentucky Derby long-shot picks

🥇 Luxor Cafe (15-1)

We get teased by Japanese horses every year, but one of these years, a Japanese horse will win the Kentucky Derby. It almost happened last year with Forever Young, who finished third in a photo finish to Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone. 

Now, meet the latest Great Eastern Hope in this American Pharoah horse. And while the progeny of the 2015 Triple Crown winner haven’t blown up Triple Crown odds races, Luxor Cafe has shown the speed necessary to be a factor in this Derby. He comes in riding a four-race winning streak, recently capped with a resounding, five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes that featured a scintillating 36.5-second final three furlongs. 

Luxor Cafe has won twice on left-hand turn tracks, and his off-the-pace stalker style should travel well - emphasis on "travel." Can Luxor Cafe take his considerable speed to the U.S.? Not every Japanese invader can. While he’s not as strong as Forever Young, who raced in the Middle East against American horses (thus providing a gauge on his ability), Luxor Cafe beat the other Japanese horse in the field - Admire Daytona - twice.

And Admire Daytona came back to win the UAE Derby. Throw all of this in the hopper, and even if you can’t get past betting a Japanese horse to win America’s most prized race, get Luxor Cafe everywhere else on your exotic wagers.

🥈 Grande (20-1)

Don’t expect this son of Curlin and the only opportunity in Derby 151 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to win his third Derby to be 20-1 when the gate opens Saturday. That’s because lightly raced (3–2-1-0) Grande checks plenty of boxes of what you look for in an exotic-wager Derby candidate.

First, there’s the speed. Grande’s runner-up finish to Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial featured a 12.4-second final furlong and a 37.3-second final three furlongs. That’s the fourth-fastest on dirt in this year’s Derby and it earned him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. In that race, Grande was wide the entire trip, yet found that necessary gear to finish a strong second.

Then, there’s Grande’s running style. Stalkers do very well in Derbies, and the expected pace should set up nicely for him to be in the mix coming out of the second turn. He should be featured and liberally sprinkled on your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets. 

🥉 Rodriguez (12-1)

It’s a Kentucky Derby, so In Bob Baffert, We Trust. Even when we’re talking about a speed horse in a race where 35% of the field falls into that genus of need-the-lead horses. Rodriguez is clearly the best of that genus, one including Champion 2-year-old Citizen Bull, American Promise, Neoequos, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and Admire Daytona - all of whom prefer front-running their races.

The question with Rodriguez is can he win when he’s not on the lead? He won the Wood Memorial with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure: one of only three triple-digit Beyers in the field. His 36.9-second final three furlongs in that race is the fastest on dirt of any Derby contender, illustrating the ability to finish what he starts. The two times he made the lead, Rodriguez did finish what he started, winning that Wood Memorial and a route race where he beat buzzhorse Baeza.

However, the two times he didn’t make the lead, he was destroyed by a combined 15 1/4 lengths by Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes and Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Baffert set him up for that Wood victory by removing blinkers, and veteran jockey Mike Smith - he of the two Kentucky Derby victories - knows what buttons to push and when.

But the best way to bet Rodriguez is as a flyer to win, hoping that he somehow takes the lead, isn’t pushed into insane fractions and follows the playbook of 2021’s Medina Spirit, who went gate-to-wire at 12-1 and crossed the finish line first, before being disqualified a week after the Derby.

📺 Kentucky Derby info & how to watch

• When: Saturday, May 3
• Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
• How to watch: NBC Sports

📰 Kentucky Derby betting news

• FanDuel adds new promos for 2025 Kentucky Derby
• FanDuel TV to broadcast all Kentucky Derby preparation races
• FanDuel announce Shaboozey as headline act at Kentucky Derby party
• Kentucky sportsbook wagers down month-over-month in February
• Kentucky pari-mutuel betting handle drops in December

🎟️ How to bet Kentucky Derby long shots

There are a variety of ways to bet Derby long shots. Of course, there’s the straight win/place/show wagers. Keep in mind that a favorite hasn’t won the Derby for cashable purposes since Justify began his eventual Triple Crown campaign in 2018. The last five champions: 2024’s Mystik Dan (18-1), 2023’s Mage (15-1), 2022’s Rich Strike (80-1), 2021’s Medina Spirit (12-1), and Authentic in the pandemic Derby of 2020 (9-1) weren’t the public’s choices.

Kentucky Derby exotics

Then, you get into the exotics, which are multi-horse wagers that require you to pick the order of finish. Bet an exacta and you’re picking the two horses yout think will finish first and second. Trifectas demand you pick the top three in order. Take it one horse further and you get the superfecta, requiring you to pick the top four in order.

There are two different ways to bet exactas, trifectas and superfectas: straight and box. A straight exacta means you pick the horse or horses you think will win, then the horse or horses you think will finish second underneath. For example, Rodriguez over Luxor Cafe and Grande. You win your bet if Rodriguez wins and either Luxor Cafe or Grande finish second.

Kentucky Derby box wagers

With a box, you can throw all three on a ticket, and if any combination finishes first or second, in any order, you win the bet. It works the same for a trifecta or superfecta. A box wager offers flexibility, but that comes at a price. Understand the more horses you throw in a box, the more expensive the wager.

A box wager is good for beginners and good if you like several horses, but aren’t quite sure on the order of finish.

❓ Kentucky Derby FAQs

Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025?

Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states:

Kentucky sports betting is up and running, so Kentucky horse racing fans should be able to bet from anywhere in the state for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. You can also check out our list of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites here!

Canadians can bet on the Kentucky Derby at bet365.

Who is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite?

Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) are the betting favorites to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

How long is the Kentucky Derby track?

The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.

When is the 2025 Kentucky Derby this year?

The 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 3. The race will begin at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.

Where is the 2025 Kentucky Derby held?

The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Here are our best Kentucky Derby betting sites:

Looking to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the top-rated Kentucky Derby betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos ahead of the 2025 Run for the Roses:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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