Best Strikeout Props Today: Our Top 4 MLB Predictions & Picks for Monday, April 28
Our best strikeout prop predictions today feature a quarter of Unders on starters we expect to have a rough day at the office on Monday.
We start in Cleveland, where Gavin Williams takes on a Twins team coming off three wins in a row against the Angels. Then we move to Coors Field, where even the best pitchers struggle. Bryce Elder is not one of the best pitchers, so he's in for an absolute nightmare tonight.
Finally, we finish with a double dose of strikeout predictions in the Marlins vs. Dodgers showdown, which also features one of our best home run predictions today.
💰 Best MLB strikeout props today: April 28
Here are the four best MLB strikeout prop predictions and odds today; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
⚾ Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Twins (6:10 p.m. ET) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $11)
Terms and conditions apply.
This is a combination of a line being set at the right number, but the odds just being far too long.
Williams is a decent strikeout pitcher, averaging exactly 9.00 per nine innings this season. He struck out eight in his last outing, but that was against a Yankees team that goes down on strikes at the third-highest rate in the league. Tonight, he faces a Twins ballclub that's much more disciplined.
As I said, the 5.5 line is perfectly fine. Williams has gone Over this number in two of his five starts. However, it's these +110 odds that make this bet so valuable. In reality, this Under should be trading closer to -140, which is why FanDuel and Caesars have it at minus money.
We're getting nearly 20% +EV based on Williams' projection of 5.19 strikeouts, but I would leave this alone if the Under moves to -120 or shorter at our best sports betting sites.
Gavin Williams strikeout prop odds
⚾ Bryce Elder Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
Terms and conditions apply.
We have two things working in our favor here and one against us. First, Elder stinks. He owns a 5.57 ERA this year, his peripherals aren't much better, and he's striking out just 5.14 hitters per nine. He hasn't gone Over this number in any start this season. Additionally, he pitches at Coors Field tonight, where many pitchers struggle to get their pitches to move like they're accustomed to - Elder throws a four-seamer only 12.2% of the time.
However, I mentioned there's something working against us. That's the fact that the 2025 Colorado Rockies might be the worst team in MLB history. They're striking out in nearly 29% of their plate appearances. But that number does dip to 27.4% at home, and they take significantly more walks at Coors Field, too, which bodes well for us since Elder is walking 3.43 batters per nine.
If the Rockies can run his pitch count up early, the 4.11 strikeout projection will end up looking optimistic. As it is, we're getting better than 16% +EV based on that number.
Bryce Elder strikeout prop odds
⚾ Edward Cabrera Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -150 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $6.67)
Cabrera is unique from all the other pitchers we're targeting today, whom I mostly think just won't quite get the necessary number of strikeouts. It's not that I think Cabrera will struggle to get punchouts against the Dodgers; I think he'll struggle to get through even two innings against them. That's why I've loaded up on Dodgers hitting props today.
The projections seem to agree, too, as Cabrera is projected for just 3.84 punchouts. That tells me he isn't expected to go deep in this game based on his 11.05 K/9 for the season, and that's confirmed by the fact that his innings projection is just 4.67.
It's interesting to me that Cabrera's strikeout total is set at 5.5, yet our best sports betting apps have his total outs prop set at 14.5. So, no, I don't think that Cabrera and his 6.14 ERA will go Over that outs total and strike out more than one-third of those hitters in the process. Call me crazy, I guess.
Edward Cabrera strikeout prop odds
⚾ Dustin May Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Marlins (10:10 p.m. ET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8.33)
May's strikeout Under continues to look very tasty at our best sportsbooks despite the fact that Pinnacle, widely accepted as the sharpest book, already has it priced at -170. Generally, the most popular sportsbooks follow Pinnacle's lead, so it won't be long until this price is gone at DraftKings.
Even at that -170 price, you're getting decent value, though, which speaks to May's struggles to rack up strikeouts this year. He's managing just 7.77 per nine after striking out five Cubs hitters across five innings his last time out. Before that, he struck out a season-high seven over six innings, but when you consider that was at home against the Rockies, it's really not that impressive.
I believe May will have a solid start, as he should provide the Dodgers with five-plus quality innings. I just don't believe he's getting to six punchouts in the process.
Dustin May strikeout prop odds
💰Best MLB strikeout parlay today
Here is our best MLB strikeout parlay for Monday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
💵 Best MLB betting sites
Looking to bet on baseball? Here are the best sports betting sites for MLB betting and the best sportsbook promos for today's games:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
