Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday
Aaron Judge is putting together a Barry Bonds-like campaign through the first month of the 2025 MLB season, and he headlines our Dinger Tuesday best home run predictions tonight.
You rarely find any value on hitting props for Judge, so when you do, it's time to pounce. He isn't the only MLB MVP odds contender we're featuring today, though. Kyle Tucker also looks poised to add to his growing tally of long balls while pursuing the first 30-30 season of his career.
Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe gets a tasty matchup at the Tampa Bay Rays' temporary ballpark, which has been very hitter-friendly this season.
Finally, we challenge the baseball gods, as Brent Rooker takes on this generation's greatest pitcher, Jacob deGrom. You know what they say about tugging on Superman's cape. But what if Kryptonite now flows through Superman's blood?
💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: Dinger Tuesday
Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds for Dinger Tuesday with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Aaron Judge player prop pick: To hit a home run (+255 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kyle Tucker player prop pick: To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Brandon Lowe player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Brent Rooker player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets
Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Aaron Judge (Yankees) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +255 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $25.50)
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Here's all you need to know about this Judge home run prop. First, go to Baseball Savant and check the exit velocity and barrels leaderboard, as well as the expected stats leaderboard. This is where you'll see Judge:
- Barrels per PA: 1st
- xwOBA: 1st
- xSLG: 1st
- Average exit velocity: 4th
- Max exit velocity: 4th
- Balls hit at 95+ mph: 6th
- Average swing speed: 11th
So, yeah, he's pretty ridiculous. Secondly, this is a number that usually trades around +180 but is sitting at +255 today, and Judge is facing a pitcher who's managed an ERA below 4.00 just twice in the last nine seasons.
Kyle Gibson makes his season debut for the Orioles tonight after signing with the team in March. He made three starts in High-A and apparently dealt with some back tightness during his last outing. Thankfully, for Gibson, that back should loosen up when he's forced to whip his body around to watch Judge's inevitable nuke.
⚾ Kyle Tucker (Cubs) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +420 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)
I understand that Tucker is going to get paid a ton of money after this season, and the Astros just couldn't afford to pay him. After all, they're a small-market team with very little success during the last decade. Oh wait, no, they're just cheap.
While the Astros trot out Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon and deploy Jose Altuve in left field, Tucker is putting up MVP-caliber numbers for the Cubs. He's logged seven home runs already this season, and I'm backing him to hit his eighth tonight.
Tucker and the Cubs take on Andrew Heaney, who's suddenly turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. I'm not buying it, and I think the regression is coming.
The Cubs outfielder may not get on base as often against southpaws (.333 OBP vs. .423 against righties). But he's cranked three bombs in just 39 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. Therefore, I'm not worried about the matchup and believe Tucker draws his home run total even with his steals tonight.
⚾ Brandon Lowe (Rays) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +525 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $52.50)
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Lowe is off to a rocky start this season, as his wRC+ sits at a brutal 72 and his slash line is .220/.255/.340 vs. career marks of .244/.327/.476. However, I'm backing Lowe to get on track tonight against the Royals.
Tropicana Field has never been a great ballpark for hitters, as it ranked 26th in the league last year by Park Factor and right around the middle of the pack in terms of how homer-friendly it was. However, the Rays' 2025 home, George M. Steinbrenner Field, ranks 10th and seventh by those metrics, respectively.
For his part, Lowe's batted-ball data doesn't look that bad. He's hitting the ball harder than last year, and his expected stats all tell the story of a player about to break out. Tonight is the night things start to turn around for Lowe.
⚾ Brent Rooker (Athletics) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $47.50)
Admittedly, it's pretty scary to bet on a home run prop for a hitter facing deGrom. But the combination of Rooker's projection and this price is simply far too enticing to pass up.
In fact, Rooker is getting the best home run projection of the day, and even better than Judge's. Rooker's batted-ball data looks nearly identical to last year's, though his stats tell the story of a player who's regressed significantly. I'm here to tell you that isn't the case.
Meanwhile, deGrom doesn't look quite right yet after throwing only 10 2/3 innings last year. He's allowed 1.67 home runs per nine innings and is striking out only 8.67 batters per nine. The latter is a far cry from the 12ish he's been averaging across the last seven seasons.
DeGrom will return to his dominant ways eventually if he stays healthy. But tonight is not eventually, and I'm backing Rooker to hammer a mistake in Texas.
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Dinger Tuesday; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
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