How to Bet on the Next Pope: How the Pope is Chosen and Best Pope Betting Sites
Looking for where to bet on the next Pope? Options are limited at the moment, with Kalshi the only viable option for U.S. action enthusiasts.
We'll add more pope betting sites as they become available – but for now, here's a look at the best place to profit on correctly selecting the next Pope.
Best Pope Betting Site
Those looking for action on one of the most globally fascinating events of 2025 presently have just one choice: Kalshi.
The quickly emerging event contract site has a detailed list of candidates for who will be named as the next Pope following the passing of Pope Francis on Monday at the age of 88. Whether you're new to event contract purchasing or have previous experience in this field, Kalshi is a great option for wagering on both traditional markets and unique events (like this one).
Is It Legal to Bet on the New Pope?
You won’t find next Pope betting markets on any legal U.S. sportsbook – and for good reason. Religious outcomes fall squarely outside the scope of regulated sports betting, which is tightly limited to athletic competitions, entertainment props, and certain awards markets. But that doesn’t mean there’s nowhere to wager.
Prediction market platforms – led by Kalshi – often allow users to trade on high-profile non-sport outcomes, including papal elections. While these platforms aren’t licensed as sportsbooks, they function more like betting exchanges tied to real-world events, and they’re where most of the action will land if a conclave is called.
In short: If you’re looking to speculate on who will earn the coveted white smoke, skip the sportsbooks and start browsing the prediction markets.
The Best Pope Betting Site Reviewed
It's no surprise that one of the fastest-growing event wagering companies in the world is our recommendation for the top site on where to bet on the new Pope.
Kalshi has taken the speculative market world by storm, offering thousands of events on which you can purchase "contracts," an action similar to placing a wager. And with legal sports betting sites steering clear of the new Pope selection process, Kalshi is your best option for securing action on this globally significant event.
How to Bet on the Pope at Kalshi
1. Create an account using our Kalshi promo code, which entitles you to a $10 bonus once you've signed up for 100 event contracts. You’ll need to verify your identity – just like a sportsbook – and fund your account with a linked bank account or card.
2. Find the market. With the papal selection process imminent, you'll find Kalshi's "Who will the next Pope be?" market here. If you're looking to bet on other markets, Kalshi's "search markets or profiles" bar in the top right corner is a major help.
3. Buy Yes or No shares. Each candidate has a contract priced between $0.01 and $1.00. Buying “Yes” shares means you’re backing that candidate to become Pope. If they’re chosen, your shares settle at $1.00 each. If not, they settle at $0.00. For example: If you buy 10 shares of Cardinal Tagle at $0.28 and he’s elected, you get $10. If not, you lose $2.80.
4. Sell early or ride it out. You can sell shares any time before the outcome is final – potentially locking in a profit if public sentiment shifts in your favor. Think of it like trading a stock: prices move based on news, momentum, and perception.
It's really that simple. Kalshi is one of the more user-friendly event wagering businesses out there, once you familiarize yourself with the difference between event contract prices and betting odds (though they work similarly).
- Kalshi is available in all 50 U.S. states, though it has faced considerable resistance. While Kalshi operates under federal regulation, states like Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Maryland, and Montana have issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing that Kalshi's offerings resemble unlicensed sports betting and violate state gambling laws. Monitor the news in your state.
- Kalshi is currently unavailable outside of the US, but you can sign up for a waitlist and get notified when it becomes legal in your country. The $10 sign-up bonus from our Kalshi promo code is the same for all states.
- You can withdraw your funds directly to your bank account with no limits or fees, which usually takes three to four business days. Debit card and crypto withdrawals are much quicker, taking around 30 minutes on average, but they have a $2,500 max limit, with debit card withdrawals charging a flat $2 fee.
- Kalshi customer support is limited to email. You can also join Kalshi Discord or try to reach them on their social media profiles. The help is efficient, covering all sorts of topics.
How to Bet on the Pope in Canada
Canadians face a good-news, bad-news proposition when it comes to getting action on the next Pope.
Unfortunately, Kalshi isn't yet available in Canada, which takes the prediction market option off the table north of the 49th parallel. On the plus side, Canadians outside the province of Ontario can access next Pope betting odds via bet365, featuring all of the main candidates to replace the late Pope Francis.
Terms and conditions apply.
Bettors in Ontario have an option, as well. Sports Interaction offers up four papal markets at the moment, including from which continent the next Pope will be elected, and how many rounds will be required before the new pontiff is elected.
Terms and conditions apply.
Next Pope Betting Odds & Candidates
There are two clear favorites for the next head of the worldwide Catholic church – at least, based on the wagering trends.
Who will emerge as the next Pope? And how have candidate values shifted since first becoming available? We can't answer the first question yet – but we have plenty of information on the second. Let's take a look at the current next pope odds.
Next Pope Odds
Note: Kalshi determines the market as settled when a new Pope selection is confirmed; the person chosen must also accept the position.
| Name | Value (¢) | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 30¢ | +233 |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 20¢ | +400 |
| Peter Turkson | 14¢ | +614 |
| Matteo Zuppi | 12¢ | +733 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 6¢ | +1567 |
| Peter Erdo | 6¢ | +1567 |
| Robert Sarah | 4¢ | +2400 |
| Fridolin Ambongo | 3¢ | +3233 |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | 2¢ | +4900 |
Market prices updated as of Sunday, April 27; check out our full list of next Pope odds here.
Next Pope favorites
Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Kalshi Market: 30% | Implied Odds: +233
Parolin remains the favorite in the Kalshi market, and the +233 implied odds reflect that he's considered the “safe pick” – but not an overwhelming one. As Vatican Secretary of State, he’s got the institutional chops, but that also means he comes with institutional baggage. If the College wants continuity and a steady hand, Parolin’s their guy. But if reform or surprise is the theme, his frontrunner status might actually hurt him.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Kalshi Market: 20% | Implied Odds: +400
Tagle remains a serious contender, even if his odds have softened slightly. At +400, he’s clearly respected, but not seen as the favorite. His global appeal and compassionate image make him a strong reformist candidate, especially if the cardinals want to pivot toward a more outward-facing, evangelical Church. The biggest knock? Some insiders still wonder if he's too tied to Francis’ legacy to represent a true new era.
Peter Turkson (Ghana)
Kalshi Market: 13% | Implied Odds: +614
Turkson is still hanging around the conversation – and at +614, he’s very much a viable dark horse. His global humanitarian work and leadership roles on issues like climate and migration give him broad credibility. But questions about his Vatican political instincts, and the fact he’s been passed over for major roles before, weigh down his candidacy. If the cardinals are feeling bold but not reckless, Turkson could surge.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
Kalshi Market: 12% | Implied Odds: +733
Zuppi has climbed steadily in the betting markets, and at +733, he’s clearly on the radar. Known for his pastoral style and peace negotiation experience, he appeals to those seeking a “Francis-style” continuation – but with fresher energy. His Italian roots could help in a traditionalist vote, but they could also hurt if cardinals want to break with the longstanding European dominance of the papacy.
Odds on the Papal Name of Next Pope
The selection of a new Pope isn't the only notable part of the process. There's considerable buzz surrounding the next papal name; will we see a recently used moniker surface again? Or will the next Pope have a different name altogether?
Here's a quick look at the betting favorites (odds courtesy Sports Interaction as of Sunday, April 27):
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Francis | +400 | 20.00% |
| John | +500 | 16.70% |
| Benedict | +500 | 16.70% |
| John Paul | +500 | 16.70% |
| Leo | +600 | 14.30% |
| Gregory | +1000 | 9.10% |
| Urban | +1000 | 9.10% |
| Clement | +1400 | 6.70% |
| Stephen | +1400 | 6.70% |
| Paul | +1400 | 6.70% |
| Innocent | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Pius | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Boniface | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Celestine | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Eugene | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Pontian | +2000 | 4.80% |
| Victor | +3300 | 2.90% |
| Adeodatus | +3300 | 2.90% |
| Sixtus | +6600 | 1.50% |
| Damien | +10000 | 1.00% |
Next papal name favorites
Francis
Odds: +400 | Implied Probability: 20.0%
Francis leads the papal name market – and while it’s tempting to see this as a nod to continuity, it could just as easily reflect simplicity. With Pope Francis still active in living memory, a successor choosing “Francis” would signal a strong desire to extend his reformist legacy. But it could also be risky: too much overlap might leave some factions in the Church uneasy.
John
Odds: +500 | Implied Probability: 16.7%
John is the ultimate classic – short, timeless, and dripping with papal history. A new pope choosing John would feel less like a political statement and more like a return to safe, pastoral tradition. At +500, the market clearly thinks it’s a strong possibility. If the next pontiff wants to project humility without controversy, John fits like a glove.
Benedict
Odds: +500 | Implied Probability: 16.7%
Choosing Benedict would raise eyebrows. It would unmistakably harken back to Pope Benedict XVI’s more traditional, doctrinal papacy. For cardinals hoping to nudge the Church back toward conservatism – without shouting it from the rooftops – Benedict could be a subtle but pointed choice. But the market sees it as a gamble: nostalgia can be tricky to navigate.
John Paul
Odds: +500 | Implied Probability: 16.7%
John Paul remains a sentimental powerhouse in the Church. A pope choosing this name would tap instantly into the immense goodwill and worldwide popularity of John Paul II. But there’s a risk of being seen as derivative – a papal "tribute act" rather than a fresh leader. Still, at +500, it’s clear that sentimentality can’t be discounted.
Other betting odds for the next Pope
You'll find some secondary Pope markets out there, though U.S. bettors are restricted from wagering on these.
Continent of next Pope
| Continent | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Europe | +100 | 50.00% |
| Asia | +225 | 30.80% |
| Africa | +275 | 26.70% |
| North America | +1200 | 7.70% |
| South America | +2500 | 3.80% |
(odds courtesy Sports Interaction)
• Europe remains the frontrunner at +100, with a 50% implied probability – still basically a coin flip.
• Asia follows at +225, with strong contenders like Luis Antonio Tagle keeping it very much in the hunt.
• Africa is a credible third option at +275, reflecting a rising influence within the Church hierarchy.
• North America and South America trail significantly, sitting at +1200 and +2500 respectively.
Number of rounds to elect the next Pope
| Ballot Range | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 5 or 6 ballots | +175 | 36.40% |
| 7 or 8 ballots | +175 | 36.40% |
| 3 or 4 ballots | +375 | 21.10% |
| 9 or 10 ballots | +400 | 20.00% |
| 11 or more ballots | +1000 | 9.10% |
| 1 or 2 ballots | +1600 | 5.90% |
(odds courtesy Sports Interaction)
• The market sees a moderate-length conclave as the most likely outcome, with 5–6 ballots or 7–8 ballots tied as co-favorites at +175.
• A faster election – wrapping up within 3–4 ballots – is a secondary possibility, priced at +375.
• Longer conclaves requiring 9–10 ballots (+400) or even 11 or more ballots (+1000) are seen as increasingly unlikely but still plausible.
• A first- or second-ballot election would be a true shock, carrying the longest odds at +1600.
Check back here for additional markets as they're added.
How is the new Pope chosen?
Vacancy of the Papacy
- The process begins when the pope dies or resigns (as Benedict XVI did in 2013).
- From that moment, the seat is officially vacant.
Cardinals Assemble
- Roughly 120 cardinals under age 80 are eligible to vote.
- They travel to Rome and prepare for the conclave.
Conclave Lockdown
- The cardinals are sequestered in the Vatican — no phones, no media, zero contact with the outside world.
- The voting takes place in the Sistine Chapel, beneath Michelangelo’s “Last Judgment.”
- All participants take a strict oath of secrecy.
Voting Process
- Each cardinal writes down the name of one man (must be Catholic, technically doesn’t need to be a cardinal).
- A two-thirds majority is required to elect a pope.
- After every vote, the ballots are burned:
Acceptance
- The winning candidate is asked: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?”
- If he accepts, he chooses a papal name.
Public Announcement
- The senior cardinal deacon steps onto the balcony and declares: “Habemus Papam” (We have a pope).
- The new pope appears and delivers his first Urbi et Orbi blessing (to the city and to the world).
Learn more about the process here.
Pope Betting FAQs
Is it legal to bet on a new pope?
Not in the United States. Traditional sportsbooks in the U.S. don’t offer markets on papal elections due to regulatory restrictions. However, prediction markets like Kalshi provide odds or contract-style wagers on who the next pope might be.
How do people choose the next pope?
The process is called a papal conclave, where eligible cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel and vote in secret. A two-thirds majority is required to elect a new pope. After each vote, ballots are burned — black smoke means no decision; white smoke signals a new pope has been chosen.
How many cardinals are there?
There are currently about 240 cardinals worldwide, but only around 120 are eligible to vote, as only those under the age of 80 may participate in the conclave. Any one of them could theoretically become the next pope, though front-runners tend to be well-known figures within the Church.
What makes someone eligible to be the next pope?
Technically, any baptized male Catholic is eligible. However, by tradition and precedent, the pope is almost always chosen from among the cardinals. If someone outside the College of Cardinals were chosen, he would need to be ordained as a bishop before taking office.
Who is the next favorite to be pope?
As of the latest odds, Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) is the frontrunner, followed closely by Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), Matteo Zuppi (Italy), and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy). Prediction markets currently give Parolin about a 30% chance.
Can you bet on the conclave?
Yes – just not in the U.S. You can bet on several conclave-related markets offshore or via prediction exchanges, including:
- Next pope (individual)
- Continent of origin
- Number of election rounds
- Next papal name
Betting markets typically close just before or at the start of the conclave.
Who is the youngest cardinal?
As of 2025, the youngest cardinal is Cardinal Giorgio Marengo of Mongolia. Born in 1974, he was made a cardinal at age 48, and is often noted as one of the most youthful and globally representative figures in the College of Cardinals.
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